What's been up in Brazil over the past little while...
- Brazil produced record amounts of average oil in September, up 1% over August and up 7% over one year previous.
- A Police vs police clash (investigators in in Sao Paulo have been on strike for a month, demanding better pay) at state government palace: 13 injured.
- Brazil's finance minister doesn't expect the real to return to it's all time high of R1.55 per US dollar anytime soon. Not that you will hear me complaining...
- Brazil has visions of becoming a superpower - this article highlights barriers and benefits alike.
- The leaders of India, Brazil & South Africa met last week and are tired of the world's current superpowers turning the economy into a "gigantic casino". They want a seat at the table, (like at the UN Security Council or G8) more influence so to speak on world issues. They stated that the global credit crisis shows the need for reforming institutions like the UN, and blame rich countries for the crisis. Lula was particularly vocal, stating: ""We run the risk of being victims of a financial crisis generated by rich countries. This is unjust," and continued with: "It is inadmissible that we'll pay for the irresponsibility of speculators that transformed the world into a gigantic casino. At the same time they gave us lessons on how we should govern our countries... Our countries should participate more directly in international coordination to confront the financial crisis."
Wishful thinking at best in regards to the BRL X USD exchange. As long as the interest rate differential stays well above 10% there will be added pressure on the Real. This is simply grandstanding by the finance minister and he knows it. Look for the Rate to return to 1.55 and surpass it as long as the US FED maintains ridiculously low interest rates and continues to debase the US dollar with bailout packages and liquidity generated from simply printing money.
Posted by: james | October 19, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Thanks for the feedback it will be interesting to see what happens! I know of several finance institutions which are counting on you being right...
Posted by: DRL | October 21, 2008 at 10:41 AM